What To Say

I’ve been approached to market a guy’s dream site – he’s developed a portal of sorts and sees it as the next big thing.
Trouble is there is no way the site can succeed.
1. It takes 78 seconds to load on a 56 k modem.
2. It is a very confusing site – I know what he’s trying to sell and I couldn’t even find my way around.
3. It does not offer anything of any real value.
4. It requires a huge shift in thinking and behaviour from people (and there’s no motivation to do it).
5. His budget to market this revolutionary new site is $0.
So what do I do?
There are 2 trains of thought running through my head:
1. Say no. He has no hope of success.
2. How do I really know it won’t work? Maybe this guy is the next Bill Gates/Steve Jobs/Whoever and ahead of his time.
# 2 is an interesting one. As the guy marketing the site should it be of any interest to me whether this site succeeds or not?
I still get paid (or would if this guy had any budget!).
But I look at it this way (from experience): If I don’t believe in the product I certainly can’t market it effectively.
So I’ve said no.
So then, should I tell this guy the truth about his site: again, from experience, the answer is “No”.
He needs to figure that out himself. If I am right it could save this guy a lot of time and effort, but he hasn’t asked me what I think so I won’t tell him.
Cheers
Brendon